Lottery Primer

Today's the big day: the NBA Draft Lottery. Sometime between 8:30 PM EST and 9:00 PM EST tonight we will know the fate of the Boston Celtics and I'm a touch nervous. More than a touch. I was going to post a picture of the Celtics' logo, but I think that would be bad luck. I don't want to see that thing until the 2nd or 1st pick in the 07 draft is revealed. One of the top 2 picks would be a jackpot. Major celebration going on in the Nolan household if that logo hasn't shown up after the 3rd pick is revealed. 3 through 5 would be a bitter disappointment, mostly because I don't trust Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers to use it intelligently. It could conceivably be a valuable pick, but in their hands, I'm not sure. Rather than packaging and trading it for a veteran star that can help Paul Pierce out sometime before he's 45, they will draft Upside Brandan Wright and while that might be a neat UNC connection for VTK reader Scoutie as she heads down to grad school (congratulations, Scoutie), it will force me to boycott the Celtics until both Danny and Doc are fired.

Here's everything you need to know about the C's chances tonight. Here are the important percentages for the Celtics:

Celtics' Odds Of Receiving Each Possible Pick
Pick - Probability
1 ------ 19.9%
2 ------ 18.8%
3 ------ 17.1%
4 ------ 31.9%
5 ------ 12.4%

The ping pong balls are drawn for the top 3 picks, then everyone remaining is put in order according to their records. The Celtics had the 2nd worst record, so if 3 teams other than them and the Grizzlies (worst record) luck out and win the lottery, the worst they can do is the 5th pick. There are 14 teams in the lottery. Pay attention to slots 14 through 6 as they are revealed inversely; this is what we want to see:

14 - LA Clippers
13 - New Orleans
12 - Philly
11 - Indiana
10 - Sacto
9 - New York
8 - Charlotte
7 - Minnesota
6 - Portland

If 3 of those teams do not end up in those spots, then the # 5 pick will be the C's. If one or two are not in their expected spots, the C's still have a chance. The revelations of slots 6 and 7 should be particularly interesting (read: nauseating), because each of those teams has about a 1 in 5 chance of landing in the top 3, which is statistically much more significant than the 8, 9, and 10's 7% chance, and the 11 - 14's 3% chance. Any movement in the bottom 4 would be a fucking coup. If no one has moved up and Seattle is revealed at # 5 (meaning they missed out on their 30% chance of getting in the top 3), start getting excited and prepare to soil your drawers at the revelation of the 4th team. If the leprachaun does not show himself there, the next envelope that is opened will be the most important one in the last 10 years for the Celtics.

If they get the # 2, Kevin Durant, I implore you to stay away from the cocaine tonight.

If they get the # 1, I'm going to get a tattoo of 17 on my chest.

Update:

FUCK.