Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Lottery Primer

Today's the big day: the NBA Draft Lottery. Sometime between 8:30 PM EST and 9:00 PM EST tonight we will know the fate of the Boston Celtics and I'm a touch nervous. More than a touch. I was going to post a picture of the Celtics' logo, but I think that would be bad luck. I don't want to see that thing until the 2nd or 1st pick in the 07 draft is revealed. One of the top 2 picks would be a jackpot. Major celebration going on in the Nolan household if that logo hasn't shown up after the 3rd pick is revealed. 3 through 5 would be a bitter disappointment, mostly because I don't trust Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers to use it intelligently. It could conceivably be a valuable pick, but in their hands, I'm not sure. Rather than packaging and trading it for a veteran star that can help Paul Pierce out sometime before he's 45, they will draft Upside Brandan Wright and while that might be a neat UNC connection for VTK reader Scoutie as she heads down to grad school (congratulations, Scoutie), it will force me to boycott the Celtics until both Danny and Doc are fired.

's everything you need to know about the C's chances tonight. Here are the important percentages for the Celtics:

Celtics' Odds Of Receiving Each Possible Pick
Pick - Probability
1 ------ 19.9%
2 ------ 18.8%
3 ------ 17.1%
4 ------ 31.9%
5 ------ 12.4%

The ping pong balls are drawn for the top 3 picks, then everyone remaining is put in order according to their records. The Celtics had the 2nd worst record, so if 3 teams other than them and the Grizzlies (worst record) luck out and win the lottery, the worst they can do is the 5th pick. There are 14 teams in the lottery. Pay attention to slots 14 through 6 as they are revealed inversely; this is what we want to see:

14 - LA Clippers
13 - New Orleans
12 - Philly
11 - Indiana
10 - Sacto
9 - New York
8 - Charlotte
7 - Minnesota
6 - Portland

If 3 of those teams do not end up in those spots, then the # 5 pick will be the C's. If one or two are not in their expected spots, the C's still have a chance. The revelations of slots 6 and 7 should be particularly interesting (read: nauseating), because each of those teams has about a 1 in 5 chance of landing in the top 3, which is statistically much more significant than the 8, 9, and 10's 7% chance, and the 11 - 14's 3% chance. Any movement in the bottom 4 would be a fucking coup. If no one has moved up and Seattle is revealed at # 5 (meaning they missed out on their 30% chance of getting in the top 3), start getting excited and prepare to soil your drawers at the revelation of the 4th team. If the leprachaun does not show himself there, the next envelope that is opened will be the most important one in the last 10 years for the Celtics.

If they get the # 2, Kevin Durant, I implore you to stay away from the cocaine tonight.

If they get the # 1, I'm going to get a tattoo of 17 on my chest.




Dan said...

fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck.

kmc said...

you okay?

Dan said...

Worst case scenario: the 5th pick. As long as they trade the pick, I'll be just fine. But that's not going to happen.

kmc said...

on the plus side, at least you don't have to get a tatoo on your chest (that probably would have hurt). They could make a good decision. It is possible...

Dan said...

I wouldn't be furious if they got Al Horford or traded the pick for a veteran proven player. Anything else, I'll probably be furious.

I might get the tattoo anyways. for good luck.

kmc said...

what about the chinese guy?

(if you are going to get a tattoo anyway, maybe you could consider "LDNCSC"?)

Dan said...

I think Yi's a few years away and the C's need help now. Plus, I heard a rumor that Yi is 22, not 19, which means his "upside" is already pretty much "up".

Dan said...

Next day: still depressed about this. I know it's just sports and all, but this is like watching ten years go right down the drain.

http://onemoredyingquail.blogspot.com shares my frustration and it's demonstrated nicely in this last paragraph of their post:

"(And you know what? Fuck you too, Blogger. If I hit "enter", I want a space between paragraphs. If I don't, I want to continue the paragraph. Not that difficult.)"

Just lashing out.

Well, it is a beautiful day out. I might as well go to the pub and watch the UEFA Champions League Final between two teams I could give two shits about.

And drink some Guinness maybe.

blythe said...

i wish i could say i feel your pain, but although i read that post, i have no idea what it meant. college football is all i can manage. chin up, buddy.

Dan said...

remember what it felt like to lose to Boise State on an OT Statue of Liberty play? Kinda like that, except it's going to last for the next ten years because you're going to watch Boise State run that play successfully over and over and over and know that it could have been you winning with that play over and over and over.

but thanks.

Dan said...

also, I had 4 pints and it's still sunny out, so I feel a little better. And I'm wearing my new NoMaas.org baseball shirt, so hopefully the Yankees will win tonight. Speaking of which, anyone looking to help me build on that 4 pint base and watch the game on a Humpday night, lemme know...

blythe said...

oh man, that sucks. i almost ran my car off 91 listening to that game. well, four pints deep isn't a bad place to be, especially when the yankees are playing. no one watches baseball here. it's sad. but there's no team. i gotta get out of here...

Dan said...

could be worse - you could be almost everyone you know's one yankee fan that they like to tool on when the yankees are sucking. gets old.

shout out to vtk yankee readers: PRT, SeanO, Marshall, Lauren, and Yona. Keep the faith.

Dan said...

queue dewy24 comment...

fuge said...

Hey Dan, one thing about this post...You said you didn't trust Danny to pick someone 3 through 5...If there is one thing Danny has done well over his time is drafting...no?

Dan said...

well, I think it's been mixed. He was hired before the 03 draft so he's on the hook for those picks on. Let's take a look:

(year - round - pick - selection)

2006 - 1 - 7 - Randy Foye (picked for Portland in trade for Telfair, which was immediately traded to Minnesota for Brandon Roy who became rookie of the year, while Telfair was busy sucking and being a lame ass. bad pick)
1 - 22 - Rondo (great pick)
2 - late - Powe (good pick)

2005 NBA 1 18 Gerald Green (good pick, might be great some day)
2 20 Ryan Gomes (great pick for late draft)
2 23 Orien Greene (not bad)

2004 NBA 1 15 Al Jefferson (great pick)
1 24 Delonte West (good pick)
1 25 Tony Allen (good pick)
2 11 Justin Reed (eh)

2003 NBA 1 16 Troy Bell
1 20 Dahntay Jones (they ended up with Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins with these two picks which kind of cancel eachother out, but considering they passed on Josh Howard, Boris Diaw, and Leandro Barbosa, I'm going to have to rate these overall as bad picks)
2 27 Brandon Hunter (eh)

So, I guess he's been more good than bad, but I think his talent here is finding guys in the 15 - 25 range who end up being good. I'm not sure if I feel comfortable with him making the right choice with the 5 pick. Seems like there's more room for error. But I will say that I've calmed down considerably about this situation. If Pierce and Jefferson play full seasons at their all star potential, and rondo and green continue to develop and refine their games, and they get good contributions from west, allen, wally, gomes, kendrick, scal, and whoever they get in the draft, this is not a horrible team. They're maybe a 3 or 4 seed in the East, which isn't great, but it's something. Also, Vin Baker is finally off the books, so maybe they could go after a free agent veteran: Lewis, Billups? Trade for Camby?

Dan said...

this just in from celticsblog.com:

"Jonathan Givony from Draft Express reported two rumors involving the Celtics today.

It's widely rumored that Boston's pick is for sale. There's a couple of trade rumors going on there. One of them is with Portland, where Zach Randolph would go to Boston for Theo Ratliff and the #5 pick. That would obviously be to satisfy Greg Oden in drafting Mike Conley Jr.
Boston's pick is on the block... even Indiana, I hear, is looking at that #5 pick. Jermaine O'Neal is a player that could be involved in a trade there, maybe for Theo Ratliff and that #5 pick.

That's what I'm talking about. Small ball power team with Big Al and one of those guys as the two Forward/Centers. If they can get either one for the #5 and Theo's contract. C'mon, Wyc. Suck it up and take on the contract.