Friday, June 18, 2010
Group C Scenarios
Here's the ESPN breakdown of the scenarios in which the US can advance in the World Cup:
USA advances with:
(a) Win versus Algeria on Wednesday
(b) Tie and Slovenia-England tie IF England does not outscore USA by 2+ goals
(c) Tie and England loss
Slovenia advances with:
(a) Win or tie versus England
(b) Loss AND USA tie vs Algeria
(c) Loss and Algeria win as long as Algeria doesn't make up tiebreakers*
England advances with:
(a) Win versus Slovenia
(b) Tie AND USA-Algeria tie AND outscore USA by 3 goals
Algeria advances with:
(a) Win versus USA AND Slovenia win/tie versus England
(b) Win versus USA AND Slovenia loss versus England AND makes up tiebreakers on Slovenia
Note: If the U.S. draws with Algeria and England draws with Slovenia, and England scores exactly two more goals than the U.S., the U.S. and England would be even on all tiebreakers for second place. The tie would be broken by drawing lots ... aka, a coin flip.
* Tiebreaker order: (1) Goal differential in all group matches (Algeria is -1, Slovenia is +1); (2) greatest number of goals scored (Slovenia has 3 goals, Algeria none); (3) greatest number of points obtained in group matches between the teams concerned; (4) goal differential resulting from group matches between the teams concerned; (5) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned.
(Only way both USA and England advance is if both win.)
If USA finishes atop the group, they will face the 2nd place team from group D. If they finish 2nd, they will face the 1st place team from group D. Two of Germany, Ghana, and Serbia will likely advance, but the order is up in the air.