Tuesday, November 04, 2008

ELECTION 08 LIVE BLOG


UPDATED - 11:20 PM

12:00 Noon - It's on! I just voted. Time to do my other civic duty: live blogging!

I'll be updating throughout the day if I find interesting links or vtkworthy news items. I'll pick up the pace around 6 PM EST. I'm sure you'll be reading/watching your favorite news sources, so I'll try not to be redundant to those. This may end up reading like a giant anxious op/ed piece. I know that I have two polar opposite op/eds cooking in my head right now - one of which will make it out, the other of which will be tossed on the scrap heap. It's a weird situation in that there will be exactly one of two outcomes in a scant several hours, and I can't really believe that either one of them is going to happen: I can neither wrap my head around the idea of a black man being elected president of the US, nor can I fathom the US not electing this black man this year. The former is an amazing possibility, the latter a terrifying one (mostly because it will be the result of racism or fraud). Feel free to join in the live blog via the comment section. Yes you can.


2:00 PM - here are some midday links to get you through the countdown until the polls close:

- Exit Polls - In the comments, Joel brought up the uncertainty and unreliability of exit polling data. This is a good primer from dailykos, explaining what to look for, who to listen to, etc. Personally, I'm not giving any exit poll much credence. The false optimism created in 2004 and its subsequent collapse was too brutal. UPDATE: in fact dailykos and nate silver are now suggesting we ignore exit polls (which don't start coming out until later (5 EST) anyway).
- The Final Pollster - speaking of false optimism... who knows how accurate these polls are going to end up being, but Pollster.com's final state polling has Obama winning 273 electoral votes in the strong category - meaning McCain could win every toss up state and "leaning Obama" state and Obama would still win. Also of note, as pointed out by fuge, Karl Rove is predicting an Obama landslide. Though any sports fan will tell you this is a classic jinx move, so I'm not buying what he's selling either.
- Poll Closing Times - The real shit starts at 7 PM EST when the polls close in VA and IN (parts of IN close at 6). If VA goes Obama early (or at all) that's going to be a huge sign as to what we can expect. If IN is too close to call initially, that's another good sign. If IN actually goes Obama, get out the drape-measuring stick. The Gary, IN area (Chicago media market) is in the Central Time Zone though, so by the time the networks call IN, we might have a good idea of what's happening in VA, NC, and possibly FL and OH so it might be moot. FL and OH will probably take a while though.
- Steelers beat Redskins - This is supposed to mean that Obama's going to win. I don't know about that, but I know it's nice to see Pittsburgh beat a team from the NFC East.


2:30 - Wonk out tonight and follow the Presidential election and all the Senate and House races on the awesome kos electoral scoreboard (go to www.scoreboard.dailykos.com to see tricked out version (map below is a limited version)):



Also from kos, check out this election guide that breaks everything down by poll-closing time.

4:00 - This waiting is killing me. 2 hrs before we find out that KY went for McCain and that IN is too close to call. Question: if Obama/Biden win what happens to their Senate seats? Do the state governors select the replacements? The governors of IL and DE are both Dems.

4:20 - Vote yes on 2 in MA.

4:30 - Joe the Plumber: tax-evader, reckless driver, liar, moron, and ... fraudulent voter! End this, God. Please.


6:55 - excited nervous excited nervous excited nervous excited nervous excited nervous excited nervous excited nervous excited nervous excited nervous excited nervous Polls close in VA in 5 minutes and completely in IN in (inINin) 5 minutes. I was watching MSNBC but Chris Matthews was waxing ridiculous and it was a pretty boring panel. I switched to CNN and they've got graphics and gadgets and poll numbers! Woohoo! That's what I'm talking about. Can we get Chuck Todd to switch to CNN?

7:00 - Obama wins VT! McCain wins KY! Polls are closed in GA, IN, SC, and VA. It'll be a while before they call them in the presidential election though. (D) Warner wins the Senate race in VA. A couple of good pundit points: Conservative hack Bill Bennett gives credit to Howard Dean on his previously maligned strategy of trying to compete in traditionally Republican parts of the country; David Gergen says that the Obama campaign was one of the most impressive presidential campaigns ever. I would add that conversely the McCain campaign was one of the worst campaigns, on any level, ever. What a mess. That would be one of the most discouraging things about a McCain win - that they could run this poor of a campaign, in a year when the Republican brand is in the shitter, and the American people would still vote for them. C'mon, America. No way.

7:40 - Well ... uh. well. I like that Indiana is too close to call still. I don't like the numbers from VA so far. Florida's looking good - with 2% of the vote in. Can't really say anything about anything yet. Looks like (R) Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's in for a tough fight for his Senate seat in KY. The graphics on CNN are much better than those on MSNBC.

8:00 - tons of CNN projections, none of them significant. MSNBC called Pennsylvania for Obama?!!? Switching channels... This would be huge. CNN hasn't called it yet. Did Gergen say CBS called NC for McCain? searching ...

8:05 - MSNBC not backing off the Penn prediction. NC still too close to call. No Reds switched to Blues yet but the PA serve-hold is huge. Stealing PA was a major piece of the McCain campaign's strategy. VA not looking great, but I don't know if the heavily Democratic areas have reported yet. C'mon VA, c'mon VA!!

8:13 - MSNBC called NH for Obama too. CNN hasn't called PA or NH yet. The MSNBC calls are clearly based on exit polls - troubling. Jeanne Shaheen beats incumbent John Sununu in NH. Good pick up for the Dems. KY McConnell vote not looking great.


8:43 - CNN called PA too, so that seems solid. Dole lost to Hagan in NC to give the Dems another Senate seat (+3 so far). #'s looking decent in the presidential race in NC. I wasn't expecting to win that one. It would be a nice consolation for a VA loss though (not looking great there, but again, I don't know what part of the state is lagging in reporting). Still no reds to blues. And I recall being ecstatic over the Kerry PA win, only to be devastated later on that night. In other news, I'm starting to develop a massive headache.

8:49 - Gergen and Bennett think the PA/NH wins close the door on McCain. they're not dumb and they're not liberals. I still have a headache though.

9:00 - Obama sweeps the upper-midwest blue states - MI, MN, WI. Solid holds. Still no red to blues yet. Can I get a MO? Can I get an NC? Can I get a tylenol? VA still too close to call according to MSNBC - but they said that they're still waiting on Northern VA. That's good. Chris Matthews: "it's a good time to order a pizza. We're not going to be able to call this until well after 11." fuck me. Dems have picked up 4 Senate seats so far.

9:15 - David Gregory just interrupted Chuck Todd to call Arkansas for McCain. You don't fuck with the Chuck Todd. Never interrupt Chuck Todd. Especially not for something that obvious an inconsequential. Todd's not as optimistic for Obama as the CNN gang is. He doesn't think VA's looking good for Obama. But NC's still looking decent. I'll swap that for VA.

9:26 - 0 FUCKING HI O !!!!! MSNBC's calling Ohio for Obama and I think CNN's about to follow suit. Huge huge huge. My headache just went away.


9:43 - CNN called OH, McCain's victory party is focusing on Hank Williams Jr, not the news, John King and his fancy big board "cannot get McCain to 270". It's only my well known paranoia/superstition that's stopping me from giving Obama the coveted VTK call. It's real close though. And my head really does feel better. How bout that.

9:55 - Brian has started a Call The Final Obama Electoral Vote Tally contest in the comments section. He has 364. I have 339. Anyone? (note - this does not constitute an official call from VTK; this is strictly for contest purposes). NM goes Obama. big. Headache's still gone.

10:02 - ** VTK OFFICIAL CALL ** IT'S OVER. BARACK OBAMA WILL BE THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. CNN just called Iowa. Assuming CA and HI goes Obama, that's game, set, match. Yes!!


10:16 - Also, for those of you not paying attention to the MA election, Prop 2 passed!! Spark it up, Massachusetts!! Possession of less than an ounce of marijuana in MA is now decriminalized. I gave up smoking years ago, but I strongly believe this change in law is long overdue.

11:00 - + CA = USA elects an African American to be the President of the United States of America. Awesome. I'm so proud.

89 comments:

MacDaddy said...

GOBAMA!

Joel said...

I just voted too.

Joel

Joel said...

Should I really pay attention to those exit polls,they kind of bit me in the ass in 04 with Kerry.

Dan said...

Well, that's a fair question. Check out this exit poll election primer from dailykos.

lc said...

I just voted too. In DC but I'm pretty sure our vote for president still counts even though we have fake representation in Congress. More importantly, I'm letting my underling out early so she can vote in the battleground state of VA. People were all taking pictures of the long lines at the voting place. yea democracy! I mean, assuming the election does not turn into a bogus legal nightmare, of course.

fuge said...

Huge Line at the West Somerville Neighborhood School today at 7:20, very pleased. Look forward to the coverage.

You must mention Karl Rove's prediction at some point, and if he's just trying to put a Cooler http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0318374/

on Obama's Chances

Dan said...

GO VA! If VA goes blue, wow.

I'll be posting some links soon.

I'll also be live blogging the PSV Eindhoven Olympic Marseilles Champions Leage Match.

Dan said...

to clarify: I have no information on VA. I was just rooting them on. Sorry for the confusion.

lc said...

really? with the photo? did you have to do that?

lc said...

i meant about the skins, not the scoreboard.

Dan said...

Sorry. I'm a Steelers fan. Surely you Skins fans can take the hit for Obama, no?

McCain just finished his last stump speech and "Here I go again" by Whitesnake was his closing song. Please. God. End this.

PSV - Marseille is not on tv. I'll be live blogging Liverpool v Atletico Madrid instead. Viva Atletico! In other sports news, the Celtics are playing the Rockets tonight. Possible NBA Finals match-up?

lc said...

yeah and Rogers does have his hands on backwards so the pic of him being schooled is valid. I guess. if that loss will save the country and all.

Dan said...

good football talk, lc. any thoughts on the Liverpool Atletico match? Celtics? Wizards?

Dewy24 said...

It's not the sexiest Champions League match today but Sporting is playing Shakhtar Donetsk as I write. I expect complete silence. Did you read in the Globe yesterday that KG plays soccer in the off season and is a Chelsea fan?

http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball/celtics/articles/2008/11/03/new_regimen_to_boot/

If this country wasn't on the verge of a seismic cultural shift that I have difficulty comprehending, I'd be excited about the Celtics/Rockets tonight. Who knows. Maybe Virginia will be called early for Obama and I can open my bottle of Cliquot, praise America, put on the C's and get to bed by 11.

Dan said...

Silence it is. I'll delete any comments that reference the score. But I can't promise silence on the match I'm watching ... because Maxi Rodriquez - GOOOOOOOOOAAAL!!! A fine strike from the Argentine to give Atletico a critical away goal at Anfield.

I knew KB was a Chelsea fan but I didn't know he played. I hear a lot of NBA players have been following soccer lately.

fuge said...

KG just lost a tiny little bit of respect from me. Of course, I'm an Arsenal fan, and when I started watching them they couldn't stop winning titles. You see the Stoke result, don't say I didn't explain to you exactly what to expect from Arsenal! The red card to Van Persie is something I'd expect more from Gallas or Adebayor, but, still, classic Arsenal.

Dan said...

Still 1-0 Atletico at the 60th minute. I don't know who's shitting themselves more right now: American Republicans or Liverpool Scousers. This is actually a great distraction.

lc said...

No I got nothing for bball season. I heard Arenas was out and he's the only Wizard I really know about. I do like the futbol though. I pretty much root against English teams unless its the Premier league or something and then I root against individual players. Rooting against Thierry worked out well in the Man U Chelsea game last year (barely). Does that work? I'm better at the (American) football talk.

fuge said...

Thierry or Terry?

lc said...

oops. see? Terry.

Brian said...

If Obama/Biden win I believe a temporary replacement is named by the Governor of their respective states until a special election can be held to fill the seat. I was just listening to Hannity on the way back from voting, needless to say...he's crapping himself.

fuge said...

I'm not too worried about those states turning Red all of a sudden.

Dan said...

The most outrageous, bullshit, penalty I have ever seen given gifts Gerrard and Liverpool a goal 4 minutes into injury time at the end of the game. Absolutely criminal. Let's hope this is not a sign of stolen "Reds" victories to come today.

fuge said...

I may have just jinxed Obama, I think this in conjunction with the football omen may be too much!

fuge said...

Black Panthers?

http://www.amazon.com/gp/browse.html?node=1234279011

Dan said...

Black Panthers? Are you sure you have the right link there?

Nick said...

I was told to go Barack the Vote this morning, but when I got to my polling place (Somerville's Ward 7, Precinct 1 in the house) all they would let me do is Regular the Vote. WTF, man? We call this a democracy?

Dan said...

I blame McCain and his dirty tricks. Fuck John McCain.

Dan said...

Update on the soccer score metaphor paranoia: Leftist darlings AC Roma spanked Rich Londoners Chelsea 3-1. Forza Azurri!

fuge said...

I may have linked incorrectly, but apparently there was a black panther sporting a night stick, telling whities that there will be a black president or else...he was then arrested.

there was another black panther there, who lived in the apartment complex where the vote was taking place, who was actually a poll watcher, so he was allowed to stay.

The Practical Slacker said...

God Bless the Black Panthers for going all out to make sure that the Republican party aren't the only ones trying to disenfranchise voters during this election! If only they had coordinated on a national level...

Dan said...

Was that in Philadelphia? I heard about that and assumed they were white. I'm such a racist.

fuge said...

Look for it on Youtube, it was a Foxnews report, but it was Philadelphia.

fuge said...

On fox news they just spent 3 minutes talking about how a green screen works...This isn't 1980 assholes.

Dan said...

what the fuck are you doing watching fox news?

The Practical Slacker said...

Seriously.

Dewy24 said...

Slate.com reported the Black Panther thing earlier today. They say it checks out but was "an isolated incident". Here is the video:
http://michellemalkin.com/2008/11/04/billy-club-wielding-security-guards-at-philly-polls/#comments

Dan said...

that's here.

Michael5000 said...

West Coast home from work now, settling in for some serious media consumption....

Dan said...

Welcome to the party, M5K. I recommend drinking plenty of water. Could be a while and headaches are sweeping the nation. or my living room at least.

Dewy24 said...

MSNBC and ABC have Ohio for Obama. Even Grady Little couldn't screw this up.

IT'S ALL OVER! [CLAP, CLAP, CLAPCLAPCLAP]
IT'S ALL OVER! [CLAP, CLAP, CLAPCLAPCLAP]

Dan said...

what the fuck is up with those ninnies over at CNN? Call Ohio! Call Ohio! Call it. Call it.

Michael5000 said...

NPR calls Ohio. Looks like we might have us a presidency.

fuge said...

By the way, it's a foundation party over here on Powder House Blvd...

I still want Indiana.

Brian said...

So when do we start placing bets on final EC counts? I got dibs on 364.

Michael5000 said...

Got NM now. Cali, WA, and the Beaver State makes a winning hand.

fuge said...

Not a good sign when your campaign decides to TURN OFF the news at your headquarters.

The Practical Slacker said...

Fuckin' Arkansas.

MacD said...

who wants to go flip some cars!?!?

fuge said...

I just flipped back to NECN to get ballot question updates, and some chick in a tan pant suit may have fallen off the stage at Kerry HQ...we've gone back on the DVR 4 times to watch it.

Dan said...

OK, Brian's got 364. I got 339. Anyone else?

Fuge, I will pay you handsomely for that video.

The Practical Slacker said...

Obama's up 51/48 in Florida with 61% reporting. The Diebold effect will kick in in 3, 2, 1...

fuge said...

I had 348, and I will see what I can do to transfer from DVR to pc.

Dearest Cupcake said...

Hey! Sean and I are tuning in here in Peru. Limited resources, listening to WBUR online and keeping tabs w/VTK. Can we get excited yet?

Dan said...

Real fucking close, D-Cup! Obama just won Iowa.

Dewy24 said...

"who wants to go flip some cars!?!?"

I'm a liberal. I only flip hybrids.

Iowa to Obama.

If the over/under is 360, I'd take the over.

What is the Celtics score?

fuge said...

I said 348, I meant 358

Sean said...

What do you make of this? From washington monthly .com from a fellow vermonter: "I THINK THIS IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING.... Obama appears to have successfully flipped Ohio and New Mexico, which combine for 25 electoral votes. Iowa has just been called for Obama as well. That brings the total to 32.

As a mathematical issue, this means McCain, if he's going to win, has to win some blue states.

I'm looking at the blue states that have not yet been called, and there are four left: California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii. That's it. Period. If McCain doesn't win one of these four, he loses the race. End of story.

Not to belabor the point, but there are some key states we're watching -- Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri -- but McCain can win all of them and lose the race.

If McCain doesn't win California, Oregon, Washington, or Hawaii, this contest is over, regardless of what happens in any other state.

Democrats have banked a lot of emotional insurance over the past several months, afraid to be optimistic. At this point, unless the networks announce that they were wrong about Ohio, Barack Obama will be the President-Elect of the United States in a couple of hours."

Dearest Cupcake said...

really that last comment is from D-cup

Dan said...

Celtics are up by 3 after 3 quarters.

Dan said...

Is that Chimp Champ? You nailed it. It's over.

Now on to the Senate race. can the Dems get 60? Or more importantly, 61 - so they can kick Joe Lieberman the fuck out of the D Caucus.

Michael5000 said...

Only 20 minutes and we get serious with the OR ballot measures.

Like you care....

Dearest Cupcake said...

Yes, this is the chimpy cupcake duo on tour in Ayacucho! I still have to reserve my excitement until a little later... I remember feeling confident about a Gore win when you, KB and I left the bar in 2000.

Michael5000 said...

Oh fuckin' yeah NPR just called Virginia for Obama baby!!!

Dan said...

I care about that OR Senate race! The Republican's been campaigning as a supporter of Obama, hasn't he?

This is much more in the bag than that was, DC. Celebrate!

Dan said...

VA? Really? No one else is calling that yet. That would be sweet!

The Practical Slacker said...

NM, too.

fuge said...

The New York Post just called the entire election for Obama...


Go Trashy Tabloid News!!!

Dan said...

VTK totally scooped the NYPost!

I'm also calling the Celtic's game for the Celtics. Though they're trying to blow it.

dailykos is reporting that McCain will concede at 11 PM (in 3 minutes).

Dan said...

CNN called VA too. 220 + CA's 55 = 270+!

Celebrate.

fuge said...

I have a barack oboner the size of Alexandria Virginia right now.

Michael5000 said...

Still waiting for results in the Beaver State. Our Senator is gonna be a tossup, but a lot of OR Republicans have apparently been AWOL this election...

Dearest Cupcake said...

OMFG. If anatomically possible, I have a barak oboner too.

Dan said...

Anatomical restrictions on Oboners have been decriminalized tonight. Enjoy!

Dan said...

Jesse Jackson sobbing on tv right now.

wow.

Michael5000 said...

Damn, this is one classy concession speech. Well done, John.

Michael5000 said...

OK, except for the Palin worship. She's a freak, John.

Dan said...

agreed. this is the man people loved prior to this election cycle.

Dan said...

agreed on both comments. Palin is a psycho. I have no sympathy for her.

fuge said...

Florida! Fuck Yeah!

Dearest Cupcake said...

woot!

MacD said...

YES ON #2 too!!!!
What a grand day :)

blythe said...

dude, you shoulda sent out an evite for this party. i woulda totally brought some cisco. and slightly less than one ounce.

Dan said...

I gave notice in my post last friday. sorry you missed it, but I'll allow an extension of the decriminalization of anatomical restrictions on oboners if you want to get one.

Brian said...

364

Dan said...

Yep, you nailed it. You win a VTK lunchbox.

Brian said...

Will there be Scrapple in said lunchbox?

Dan said...

Is Pennsylvania a blue state?

Brian said...

Hold the phone...Omaha might give an electoral vote to Obama, meaning we're at 365! Omaha steaks anyone?